Trident is our flagship research product which generates signals predicting (on a standalone basis) a large change in prices (volatility) over a 3-day period (but customizable from 1-30+ days), 1 day in advance.

There are over 600 publicly posted signals originating from the Trident algorithm since January 2022 on 30+ commodity futures. We assessed the price volatility over a 3-day period following the signal day. See the “Summary” tab for covered markets and the table below for a measure of the volatility predictor performance. Note that we added four new commodities recently (Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, RBOB Gasoline and Heating Oil).

Summary Performance in Favorable Directions (03/01/2024)

Count
Min
Average
Max
FULL SAMPLE
609
0.10%
3.11%
24.56%
Summary Performance in Unfavorable Directions (03/01/2024)
Count
Min
Average
Max
FULL SAMPLE
609
0.02%
0.83%
5.72%

The 3.11% average favorable price change is 3.7X greater than the 0.83% average adverse price change and the max favorable price change is over 4X greater than the max adverse price change. The Trident algorithm, therefore, has been proven to provide a significant “edge” in trading which enables an experienced trader to generate a strong alpha or to hedge pre-existing positions. Also, we observed that the average length of time to realize the peak favorable direction change was over 2 days. This holding period also creates a much larger and deeper liquidity horizon – an important consideration for managing large allocations against the Trident algorithm vs short term/day trades.

Contact us for a research paper containing more details on methodology, deeper data analysis etc.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER:

It is the nature of commodity and securities trading that where there is the opportunity for profit, there is also the risk of loss. Commodity trading involves a certain degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information contained herein is not an offer to sell securities or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities, nor shall there be any offer of securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, including without limitation applicable federal or state laws. Not a member of NFA. Please read NFA’s Rule 2-29 pertaining to communication with public and promotional material.